Jan. 30 -

Clear skies and fair weather on course for today. The forecasted high temperature for Las Cruces is 64F with westerly winds 11 mph today. A low wind PM event occurred tonight at the SPCY station with peak hourly PM2.5 reaching 30 µg/m3 at 8 pm.

The AQI forecast shows moderate air quality over Dona Ana county due to ozone. An AQI of 52 is expected in this region.  As of 1 pm ozone concentrations are 40 ppb in SPCY and 42 ppb in Las Cruces and not enough to trigger moderate levels at the one hour averaging period.

 

The low temperatures in Alaska are still amazing me.  I mentioned the Jim River DOT station (JMTA2) near Prospect Creek, Alaska. The low temperature dipped to -79F before the station stopped communicating on Saturday. The dewpoint temperature reported by the station was -91.6F (38% RH) at the time. Since the trend at the time of the failure was going down in temperature, folks are wondering if the US record low temperature was broken at this station on Saturday. Recall that the current record of -80F was taken near this station back in 1971.  I'm curious on how accurate the sensors are for these kind of extreme temperatures. The following two photos were taken by Dr. Uma Bhatt at the University of AK in Fairbanks showing the ice fog that blankets the area.

 

This afternoon the Fairbanks NWS forecast office has posted that the Jim River DOT station should not be considered for any records since the sensors are not rated for such low temperatures. The statement is given below.

NOAK49 PAFG 302352
PNSAFG
AKZ219-222-311200-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
252 PM AKST MON JAN 30 2012

...CLARIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES FROM JIM RIVER DOT CAMP...

TEMPERATURES THIS PAST WEEKEND AT THE ALASKA DEPARTMENT OF
TRANSPORTATION JIM RIVER MAINTENANCE CAMP AT MILE 138 DALTON
HIGHWAY...STATION JMTA2...HAVE BEEN REPORTED AS LOW AS 79 BELOW.

THE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT CORRECT. THE WEATHER STATION IN USE AT
THE JIM RIVER DOT CAMP IS A PERSONAL WEATHER STATION THAT IS NOT
RATED FOR TEMPERATURE COLDER THAN 40 BELOW. THE UNREALISTICALLY
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE BELIEVED TO BE A FUNCTION OF THE BATTERY
FAILING AT VERY LOW TEMPERATURES.

THERE ARE NO OFFICIAL...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STANDARD...
TEMPERATURE MEASUREMENTS AT JIM RIVER DOT CAMP.

$$
RT/JL JAN 12

Jan. 29 -

Low wind, high PM event at the SPCY station tonight. Today's cool temperatures and light southerly winds in the 1 m/s range provided the recipe for this event. The plot below shows the PM2.5 trace as of 7 pm this evening at the SPCY from the NMED website.

Below is this morning's observations at the NMSU NWS Cooperative weather station.

                 Yesterday            Today

Station       High(F) Normal    Low(F)  Normal  Record Low Precip

NMSU            56      61       31      29       16 (1966) 0.00"

The AQI forecast for today showed an area of moderate air quality extending over all Dona Ana and El Paso counties. The moderate areas are apparently tagged for different pollutants the Airnow website. The El Paso moderate is from PM2.5 while the area in Dona Ana is due to ozone. I'll go more with the PM2.5 due to the low winds. We still have pecan harvesting going on based on my view of isolated dust plumes in the Mesilla Valley over the weekend.

 

I'm very happy with our temperatures here along the border compared to the cold snap going on in Alaska. They are still breaking records this morning with the Bettles, AK station reaching a low of -60F. Their previous record low was -58F set in 1989.  The low at the Jim River DOT station (JMTA2) today was warmer than yesterday but still very low at -54F.

Jan. 28 -

A cold front dropped temperatures a few degrees but an upper level ridge will build up over the next few days to warm us up. Even with the colder air mass over us our low was still above average. Below is this morning's observations at the NMSU NWS Cooperative weather station.

                 Yesterday            Today

Station       High(F) Normal    Low(F)  Normal  Record Low Precip

NMSU            68      61       35      29       15 (1965) 0.00"

The AQI forecast for Sunday is showing an area of moderate air quality over the eastern border region. According to the airnow page, it is due to ozone in Dona Ana county and PM2.5 in El Paso.  Today peak hourly ozone was in the 35 ppb range in Las Cruces and Sunland Park. I would expect PM2.5 to creep up tomorrow a little more than ozone with low winds in the 8 mph range

 

Elsewhere in the nation there are really cold spots.  Mark Albright at the University of Washington reports that  the Jim River DOT station near Prospect Creek Alaska reported a -77F low temperature on Saturday morning. Prospect Creek, AK, holds the record for coldest temperature in the United States at -80F on 23 January 1971.

Jan. 27 -

Cold front moving into the area tonight but mild day today. So far we are above average in precipitation going into the end of the month in Las Cruces.  Total rainfall recorded at the NMSU weather station in 2012 is 0.75 inches. The 30-year (1981-2010) average for the month of January is 0.53 inches.  Rain events in January include 0.67 inches on the 9^th, 0.01 inch on the 10^th, and 0.07 inch on the 25^th.  Rainfall across New Mexico this month has been spotty with the plains and parts of the booheel receiving little if no rain.  Below is a map from the Western Regional Climate Center showing percent of normal precipitation for the month of January as of today.  

Recall that in December 2011 the NMSU station received 1.52 inches of precipitation which was 0.72 inches above the 30-year average.

Below are this morning's observations at a couple NWS Cooperative weather stations.

                 Yesterday            Today

Station       High(F) Normal    Low(F)  Normal  Record Low Precip

NMSU            63      62       32      30       17 (1965) 0.00"
Antelope Wells  67      63       31      28       15 (2011) 0.00"

The AQI forecast shows our good air quality over the border region.

Jan. 24 -

I'm absorbing lots of good information at the 92nd American Meteorological Association annual meeting. 

Back home, PM was low today with a breezy morning. A few areas in Grant and Hidalgo county received some precipitation overnight and over eastern Luna and Dona Ana county in the evening. Below are this morning's observations at a couple NWS Cooperative weather stations.

                 Yesterday            Today

Station       High(F) Normal    Low(F)  Normal  Record Low Precip

NMSU            64      58       29      29       15 (1963) 0.00"
Antelope Wells  68      60       29      28       12 (1996) 0.00"

The AQI forecast shows our good air quality over the region.

Jan. 23 -

Sunny and breezy today.  I'm at the American Meteorological Society's Annual Meeting in New Orleans this week but still connected and following the storms that look to impact the border region.

Below are this morning's observations at a couple NWS Cooperative weather stations.

                 Yesterday            Today

Station       High(F) Normal    Low(F)  Normal  Record Low Precip

NMSU            60      58       29      29       16 (1966) 0.00"
Antelope Wells  64      62       26      28       15 (2007) 0.00"

The AQI forecast shows good air quality over the region today.

 

Tonight we saw a low wind, high PM event at the SPCY station.  Peak hourly PM2.5 was in the 40 ug/m3 range with winds around 1 m/s.

Going back to the AMS meeting, so far I've listened to several good talks on drought, seasonal forecsting and dealing with databases.

Jan. 21 -

Above average temperatures, high clouds, and breezy today.  We are in an upper level high pattern but things will change quickly this evening as this ridge moves east and is replaced with an upper level trough. This morning's jet stream pattern reflects out nice day today as the storm track is well north of us.

The NWS is calling for just winds and no precipitation from this upper level trough.  The mountains in northern NM will likely get some precipitation from this storm and is encouraging since we are running a little behind in snowpack.  Below are this morning's observations at a couple NWS Cooperative weather stations.

                 Yesterday            Today

Station       High(F) Normal    Low(F)  Normal  Record Low Precip

NMSU            72      59       31      29        1 (1918) 0.00"
Antelope Wells  70      61       28      30       13 (1996) 0.00"

Still not warm enough for a record high temperatures but still very warm for this time of year. I guess we are making up for the low temperatures from December. Looking at this morning's sounding at Santa Teresa shows a very shallow inversion near the ground that was probably gone by sun-up.

The AQI forecast for the region is showing good air quality today.

Jan. 20 -

Breezy, clear skies and warm temperatures today. I am looking at a fairly breezy weekend along the border. Winds at the Las Cruces airport already have gusted to 40 mph at 2:55 pm. Dewpoint temperatures are low, so we have dry airmass and our RH are in the single digits.  Below are this morning's observations at a couple NWS Cooperative weather stations.

                 Yesterday            Today

Station       High(F) Normal    Low(F)  Normal  Record Low Precip

NMSU            72      59       34      28       10 (1963) 0.00"
Antelope Wells  73      61       31      27       12 (2008) 0.00"

It is warm but not enough for a record as the daily record for yesterday was 77 from back in 2000. So far we have 0.68 inches of precipitation under our belt for the month of January. Last year we had none.

The EPA AQI forecast is showing good air quality for the region today.

 

Not a lot of dust is being recorded at the NMED stations but definitely some particulate is being lofted by the winds. The SPCY station's hourly PM10 peaked at just over 100 µg/m3 this afternoon.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center seasonal forecasts for temperature and precipitation just came out yesterday and they are looking like a typical La Nina pattern. Our area has the highest probability of a drier than average spring than the rest of the state. That couple spell for more dust again this spring. At least we share it with southern Arizona, if its any consolation. Below is the February through April precipitation forecast. The shaded colors indicate probabilities above and below the long term average.

 

Temperatures are also forecasted to be warmer than average.

Jan. 18 and 19-
I am looking at a forecast involving wind and some blowing dust for Friday along the border. For Las Cruces the Friday forecast from the NWS is "Breezy, with a west wind between 13 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph."

Below are this morning's observations at a couple NWS Cooperative weather stations.

                 Yesterday            Today

Station       High(F) Normal    Low(F)  Normal  Record Low Precip

NMSU            67      57       28      28       15 (1987) 0.00"
Antelope Wells  69      60       26      28       11 (2008) 0.00"

Good air quality was the fare for today as the AQI forecast showed green over the whole region.

I missed my opportunity to visit the Antelope Wells Coop station today as the Coop Program Manager was going down there today.

Jan. 17 -

Greetings from Roswell. Very nice weather here in east central NM today. We saw a little bit of snow on the ground in Cloudcroft but it has mostly melted except in the shaded areas. Stan and I replaced the wind sensor at the Artesia Ag Science Center in the afternoon and I've just finished the talk I'll be giving at the Southwest Beef Symposium tomorrow morning at 8 am.  I'll be giving a talk on the long term weather outlook for NM and TX.

Looks like another low wind high PM event at the SPCY site tonight.

 

The forecasts for the border region include warm temperatures and low winds for the next couple of days. Friday will see a change in the weather pattern as a trough passes over us and we'll likely see an increase in winds.

Jan. 16-

Partly sunny and breezy today. The day started off with some brief showers across the region but not much accumulation in areas to the east and south. The NWS Ridge2 precipitation product below shows none fell over the Paso del Norte but a few locations to the extreme west received rain in the range from 0.10 to 0.25 inches.  There were a few reports of snow in the higher elevations.

 

Grant county received the most rain based on the CoCoRaHS observations with one station receiving 0.36 inches 13 miles WSW of Silver City. I am hoping that this will add a little soil moisture and keep the dust down in that area.

Below are this morning's observations at a couple NWS Cooperative weather stations.

                 Yesterday            Today

Station       High(F) Normal    Low(F)  Normal  Record Low Precip

NMSU            63      59       34      27       13 (1964) 0.00"
Antelope Wells  67      61       37      26        9 (2007) 0.00"

The AQI forecast for the region shows an area of moderate air quality today in El Paso county and parts of Otero county due to wind blown dust.

 

As of 1 pm, wind is picking up and a few erodible areas are showing dust in Las Cruces. I started the trailer back up after a planned power outage at the end of last week.

After this low pressure system moves out of the area by Tuesday, we should see a warming trend. Looking at the long term forecast for the next 10 days using the GFS run from this morning, I see another storm coming in next Monday. See this forecast for the SPCY station below.

 

I've decided not to take filter samples at the SPCY site today. We have collected 11 out of 20 sample days total and we will probably have more low wind days to cover before we need to order more filters. However I will run the Dusttrak along side the particle sizer now that I have the batteries charged and ready.

Driving to the SPCY station the visibility worsened south of Anthony. From my vantage point on the road I saw a few spots where dust emissions were much higher around undeveloped lots, unpaved roads, and some fields. Winds were from the west this afternoon. Below is a view looking south toward Juarez at 3:52 pm on I-10.

At the SPCY site I noticed that the NMED Wedding PM10 sampler was collecting data today. The concentrations should be high but I don't expect an exceedance. While at the SPCY stite from 4 to 5 pm there was not a lot of local source emission activity but dust looked to be transported from regions west of the area. The Dusttrak PM2.5 measurements were in the 15 to 20 µg/m3 ballpark at that time and matches with the TEOM PM2.5. I set the Dusttrak to collect 2-minute samples. The only problem with the Dusttrak is that the zero will drift by tomorrow morning.

By the time I was done at the site and returning to Las Cruces, the wind had died down and visibility increased.

Tomorrow I'll be on the road to the Southwest Beef Symposium and on a weather station maintenance run to Artesia and Clovis. I hope to carve out an hour to update the blog while I'm out.

Jan. 15 -

High clouds, dry conditions, and warm temperatures describe a nice Sunday. Below are this morning's observations at a couple NWS Cooperative weather stations.

                 Yesterday            Today

Station       High(F) Normal    Low(F)  Normal  Record Low Precip

NMSU            57      58       26      27       12 (1963) 0.00"
Antelope Wells  56      62       25      25        9 (2007) 0.00"

The AQI forecast for the region showed good air quality today.

 

Knowing that a low wind event was not likely I loaded up the Minvols up today to start at 6 pm tonight to capture a "normal" evening with winds from the southwest.  Southwest winds would bring in particles from the community of Sunland Park and from the Santa Teresa border crossing area. I'm testing the Minivol batteries to see if they can run two 6-hour samples. If they can I may not swap them out and charge them everyday. I may run the samplers again tomorrow to get a high wind coarse particle and fugitive dust sample even though this is a low wind study. I also installed a 4 inch rain gauge in case there are some rain drops to collect during the next couple of days.

Update on the battery problem: The solar charge controller was not working and the deep cycle battery was discharged down to 2 volts. I had a spare battery in the truck that I swapped out for the dead one so the particle sizer is running again. Tomorrow I'll replace the controller and hopefully fix the problem.  The discharged battery is in the shop under a charger to see if it can be brought back to life.

The big weather story is the winds forecasted for Monday. An upper level low pressure system moves into the area and winds are forecasted to peak in the 30 mph range with gusts up to 45 mph. The QPF product is showing a possibility of 0.01 to 0.10 inches of rain between now and Tuesday afternoon. More is possible in the Gila and Sacramento Mountains probably in the form of snow.

Jan. 12- 14

Fairly strong low wind high PM events at SPCY over the last two days on Jan. 13 and 14.  Driving back from Tucson on Friday afternoon I saw that the playas west of Lordsburg were still very wet with a lot of water still filling the lower lying areas. The photo below shows the area around mile marker 12 on I-10 looking south.

Even though the low lying areas are saturated, the higher elevations are drying out and could yield dust if there were enough wind.

It looks like another low wind high PM epsidoe on Saturday night before the weather pattern changes.

Below are this morning's observations at a couple NWS Cooperative weather stations.

                 Yesterday            Today

Station       High(F) Normal    Low(F)  Normal  Record Low Precip

NMSU            55      58       25      27        5 (1963) 0.00"
Antelope Wells  52      60       20      25       17 (2011) 0.00"


The AQI forecast for today showed an area of moderate air quality over the southern NM and the Paso del Norte.

 

Sampling at the SPCY site started again tonight (Jan. 14) with a 6-hour run starting at 6 pm. The graph below shows the magnitude of the hourly PM10 and PM2.5 during the episode.

 At 11 pm the graphic below is what the NMED Air page showed for the SPCY site air quality index.

 

I spent the last couple of days at a Valley Fever and dust forecasting workshop in Tucson and was briefed on some of the latest research findings from those working on this disease. I am amazed at the complexity of this problem since it covers many disciplines and there are so many unknowns still after 50 years of work.  A lot of interest was stirred up from this past summer's haboob that engulfed the Phoenix area in July 2011. Some of the big questions that remain unanswered are where it is found, how it it transported from the soils to our lungs, and how long it survives in the atmosphere after leaving the soil.  The agricultural sector may be relieved that the main tilled and irrigated portions of the field is hostile to the fungi and not as likely to be a growth area. However the edges around the fields can be a more hospitable for the organism. Tucson had a bit of pollution especially noticeable in the morning with the inversion. Below is a look south toward downtown Tucson from the conference location at around 8:30am.

The battery was not charging when I visited the SPCY site on Saturday. I have not replacement items or tools so  I'll have to work on it on Sunday. There was some moisture around the datalogger box from last week so it might be related to that but not sure.

Jan. 11 -

Below are this morning's observations at a couple NWS Cooperative weather stations.

                 Yesterday            Today

Station       High(F) Normal    Low(F)  Normal  Record Low Precip

NMSU            53      57       29      27      -10 (1962) 0.00"
Antelope Wells  56      62       24      28       15 (2009) 0.00"


The AQI forecast for today showed good air quality over the region however a moderate area shows up for Thursday.

A cold front is scheduled to move over the area late tonight and temperatures are predicted to drop.

I am currently in Tucson at the Valley Fever and Airborne Dust Forecasts and Simulation workshop until Friday. The agenda looks packed but good.

Jan. 10 -

The morning started off with frost covering surfaces and dense fog in the Mesilla Valley. The GOES fog product at 14 UTC (7 am) shows fog as yellow areas and appears to cover other low lying portions of southern NM this morning.

 

We get road obscuration due to dust often in the spring but dense fog like this doesn't occur that often. The photo below was snapped at 8:29 am on Roadrunner Parkway in Las Cruces.

Below are this morning's observations at our NWS Cooperative weather station.

                 Yesterday            Today

Station       High(F) Normal    Low(F)  Normal  Record Low Precip

NMSU            48      57       27      27      6 (1964)  0.01"
Hachita         47      56       19      26      7 (1962)  0.01"

The AQI forecast for today shows good air quality over the region.

Jan. 9 -

Nice rain event in Dona Ana and El Paso counties. Most locations received more than an inch or rain with the highest at 1.08 inch. Below are this morning's observations at our NWS Cooperative weather station. I'll grab more station data when I get time today.

                 Yesterday           Today

Station       High(F) Normal  Low(F)  Normal  Record Low Precip

NMSU            60      56     30      26      8 (1964)  0.67"

Not surprising the AQI forecast for today is in the good range due to the rain wash out effects.

 

2pm update: Just got back from El Paso/Sunland Park and noticed the abrupt change in weather between there and Las Cruces.  Sunny in Las Cruces but still lots of cloud cover in El Paso made it feel like it was going to rain again.  I am going to postpone filter sampling at SPCY still another day.

A low intensity, low wind event unfolded at the SPCY station tonight.

Jan. 8 -

An upper level low brought us some good rain in some areas of the study region. At 10pm I had 0.48 inches of rain at my CoCoRaHS gauge and hasn't changed over to snow as the temperatures are above freezing.  Air quality is expected to be in the good range as the precipitation tends to wash-out the pollutants and keep the soil moisture high preventing wind erosion for a little while.

Below are this morning's observations at a couple NWS Cooperative weather stations.

                 Yesterday           Today

Station       High(F)  Normal     Low(F)  Normal  Record Low

NMSU            66        58        28      27      7 (1971)
Antelope Wells  69        60        32      25      4 (1997)
Glenwood        62        54        23      24      4 (1971)

The AQI forecast for tomorrow is showing good air quality in the region.

Jan. 7 -

Early am update:  Storm track to bring in breezy conditions this weekend and possibility of some precipitation in the study area. The NWS forecast is indicating 20% chance of rain in the SPCY study site Sunday night and into Monday morning. I'm picking on the 00Z run of the GFS for a look at the weekend and next week to see what days look good for the low wind events. So far I'm tending not to sample on Sunday night due to winds out of prescription. Saturday night's winds are forecast to be WSW 6 to 10 mph (2.7 - 4.5 m/s) and NNW winds 6 to 11 mph (2.7 - 4.9 m/s) with high gusts on Sunday night. It again looks good Monday, Tuesday and maybe Wednesday nights. After that it doesn't look favorable but too far out to say for sure.

I will update later in the day as the forecast models provide their 12Z predictions and will give a go/no call then.

Noon update: 

Winds are forecasted to be in the 4 m/s range today from the southwest over the SPCY study site tonight. We are going to sample tonight but not on Sunday.

 

The AQI forecast shows good air quality in our region. The only moderate forcasted in NM is around the Albuquerque area

 

Update @2pm:  The 18Z RUC winds looks the same as the 12Z so I'm still planning on sampling today but not Sunday.

Jan. 6 -
Above average temperatures and clear skies describes the weather today but weather is going to change. I like to see precipitation forecasts with actual rain and snow falling but I'm ready for the spring temperatures. Below are this morning's observations at a couple NWS Cooperative weather stations.

                 Yesterday           Today

Station       High(F)  Normal     Low(F)  Normal  Record Low

NMSU            64        56        26      28      7 (1971)
Antelope Wells  62        62        22      28     10 (2000)
Glenwood        57        55        21      25      4 (1971)


The AQI forecast is back to showing good air quality for our region today.

 

Looks like unsettled weather from an upper level trough for the weekend and low wind events are unlikely. The plot below is from this morning's 12Z GFS run at SPCY.

 

The evening ended with a low wind high PM event at the SPCY station.

Jan. 5 -

Low wind, high PM episode at SPCY today - Warm, clear skies, and breezes describes the weather today. Below are this morning's observations at a couple NWS Cooperative weather stations.

                 Yesterday           Today

Station       High(F)  Normal     Low(F)  Normal  Record Low

NMSU            65        54        31      28      7 (1971)
Antelope Wells  65        61        25      27     10 (2000)


The AQI forecast is back to showing an area of moderate air quality for PM2.5 in the Paso del Norte today.

 

Particulate concentrations have been low in the region with PM10 in the 20 to 40 µg/m3 range. There is a good chance of some precipitation over the weekend as the 5-day QPF shows the storm track moving through New Mexico.

 

A few scattered high clouds and contrails dotted the evening sky at 5:29 pm looking west from the NMSU campus.

A low wind high PM event was unfolding starting around 7 pm at the SPCY station.

 

I will also add the NMED Anthony station also had a low wind high PM spike this evening although not as strong as was found at the SPCY station.

Jan. 4 -

Warm, clear skies, and breezy today. Below are this morning's observations at a couple NWS Cooperative weather stations.

                 Yesterday           Today

Station       High(F)  Normal     Low(F)  Normal  Record Low

NMSU            60        54        26      27     16 (1976)
Jornada         59        53        25      18      5 (1919)


Under a high pressure system we are seeing those higher than average temperatures as forecasted.  We've been seeing breezy conditions today but the forecast is for calm wind tonight. Winds have been low in the morning at the SPCY study station but have been increasing this afternoon to around 3 to 4 m/s with gusts to 8 m/s. Winds are out of the east southeast this afternoon so I don't expect to see a low wind high PM event tonight. The AQI forecast is showing good air quality in our region today.

 

Winds didn't decrease overnight and tended to increase at the SPCY station so no low wind event today.

Jan. 3 -

Below are this morning's observations at a couple NWS Cooperative weather stations.

                 Yesterday           Today

Station       High(F)  Normal     Low(F)  Normal  Record Low

NMSU            58        57        26      29      5 (1911)
Antelope Wells  57        59        25      29     12 (2011)
Glenwood        64        54        24      23      3 (1970)

Winds have been low < 2 m/s all day at the SPCY study site with PM2.5 fairly low as well with hourly concentrations no more than 13 µg/m3 during this morning's commute time. As I was driving back from the station the haze was increasing over areas that have unpaved roads.  Winds were variable and from the north and east while I was there.

The Airnow AQI forecast shows good or green levels in our region today.

 

Evening particulates at the SPCY station were typical tonight and it peaked at the same time as usual but the magnitudes were not that impressive. Winds were low in the range we usually see the low wind events.